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Tongass Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

The future climate in the Tongass National Forest will likely be different than both what we see now, and what we have seen in the past.  According to projections, the Tongass will gradually warm and receive slightly increased precipitation over the next century.  A changing climate in Southeast Alaska influences social, ecological and economic systems. Considerable uncertainty exists, but one method to deal with uncertainty is to create a range of possible scenarios.  For more information, click on the links below which give the full reports and illustrated forecasts in the Tongass National Forest:

Climate Change on the Tongass National Forest - May 13, 2013

Summary Report of the Vulnerability Assessment

Tongass Climate Change Projections: Technical Methods and Interpretation

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Aquatic Resources in the Tongass National Forest - Nov 2014


For more information regarding climate change in the Tongass National Forest, please visit the UAF Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP) website:  


Historical and Projected Precipitation and Tempature in the Tongass National Forest over 100 years
Historical Annual Precipitation in Tongass National Forest (1971 - 2000)


Projected Annual Precipitation in Tongass National Forest (2090-2099)


Historical Annual Temperature in Tongass National Forest (1971 - 2000)Projected Annual Temperature in Tongass National Forest (2090 - 2099)

Climate Change Adaptation Workshop  •  April 5, 2011

Project Summary:

The Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center sponsored the Climate Change Adaptation Workshop on April 5, 2011 from 8:30am to 5:00pm. The workshop was developed as an outreach and education program for the community. In response to the uncertainty of climate change, many organizations have developed processes to assess vulnerability of species or systems. Some also have taken vulnerability assessments and built platforms for which climate change scenarios can be evaluated. The processes used challenge our conventional thinking of vulnerability, risk assessment, and planning for future scenarios. In this workshop, the EcoAdapt Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE) was presented, four climate change adaptation frameworks were explored and discussed, and then a panel discussed the pros and cons of these types of efforts.

The schedule for this event included the following presentations and discussions:

  • Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE): A shared knowledge base for managing natural systems in the face of rapid climate change. Rachel Gregg, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA
  • The ClimateWise Approach: A Framework for Integrating Human and Ecosystem Adaptation. Marni Koopman, GEOS Institute, Ashland, OR
  • Preparing for climate change through science-management collaboration: Examples from the Olympic Peninsula and the North Cascades. Crystal Raymond, US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA
  • Climate scenarios and decision support for Alaska, Scott Rupp, Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks
  • A tool for place-based natural resource management and conservation planning in light of climate change. Erika Rowland, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT
  • Panel discussion that summarized the approaches and strategies presented and facilitated a Q&A about climate change adaptation frameworks

SNAP and NPS Present the Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop

Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP) and National Park Service (NPS) presented the Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop in February 2012. From this workshop, the following four Projected Climate Change Scenarios were created:


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